VIETNAM COFFEE MONTHLY ROUND-UP AUGUST 2021

Inventory

The upcountry inventory in August is estimated at 101,300 tonnes, 27% lower than last month. Port inventory in August is about 255,800 tonnes, 26% lower than last month. Farmer inventory is about 80,000 tonnes, 33% lower than last month. Farmers still hold out for better prices. The remain inventory level is pretty low due to a decline in production this year.

Shipment

It is estimated that Vietnam’s coffee exports in August were up 5.5% from July at 105,000 tonnes and up 20% compared to the same period last year.

In total, in the first eight months of 2021, Vietnam’s coffee exports were estimated at 1,038,000 tonnes, down by 13% in compared to the first eight  months of 2020.

Price

We have seen Robusta coffee future on ICE hit $1,996 on 26th August, the highest price since October 2017 and continue to hit $2,070 on 31st August which was underpinned by the drawdown in exchange stocks, the outlook for increased consumption and shortage of supply.

With the increase of coffee future price on ICE, farm gate price jumps up to 40,500 VND/kg on the last days of August, which is 10,000VND higher than the same period last year. However, the amount of coffee sold by farmers is not much because this is almost the end of the crop, not much coffee left for selling and they believe more increases in price are on the way. The average differental in August is about 100 under for Vietnam Robusta Grade 2.

Weather

After a period of dry weather in June and July 2021, we have seen rain in August across coffee growing regions. Good rains have been recorded across the Central Highlands coffee provinces over the last month, with most of the key regions recording more than 200 mm of total rainfall. However, the total rainfall recorded is still lower compared to previous years and 4 years average. This may have negative impact upon the next crop production.

Others

Vietnam’s Prime Minister recently tightened pandemic restrictions in Ho Chi Minh City and other neighboring provinces included Daklak that require people not to leave their houses. This will slow down the harvest process. The cost for coffee production has increased sharply such as fertilizer with an increase of 70% – 80%, gasoline with an increase 13,63% compared to the same period last year, labor costs increased due to pandemic restrictions…

Also, Restrictions have affected both the traffic of people and cargo. Supply chain disruption caused by labor shotage, port congestion, shortage of empty containers and high sea freightcould reduce coffee exports.

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