Vietnam Coffee Monthly Round-Up July 2021
Inventory
With the lack of empty containers and many difficulties in exporting coffee, exporters’ inventory is still at high level. The upcountry inventory in July is 139,200 MT, 16% lower than last month. Port inventory in July is 346,800 MT, 14% lower than last month and 57% higher than the same perios last year.
Shipment
According to the Import and Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the coming time will face many difficulties. In addition to the complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, such difficulties are also caused by large-scale social distancing measures that have been negatively affecting the production and transportation of goods.
Besides, the prolonged shortage of empty containers has caused a sharp increase in the cost of coffee exports, reducing the competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee in the world market. The average sea freight to USD is around 6k5 USD/cont and it’s very hard to get the booking due to low space of vessel..
This year, despite continued freight capacity issues, we expect above-average shipments in July/Aug/Sep. The total coffee export from Vietnam in Jul is 99,500 MT, 1.7% higher than last month and 7% higher than the same period last year.
Price
We have seen farm gate prices jump to 39,000 VND/kg by the first half of July, this is the highest level since Nov 2019 and 5,000 higher than the same period last year. This push farmers to sell their coffee. We estimate farmer’s stock by end of Jul was 5% left. The average differential is about 80 under for Robusta Grade 2.
Weather
Dry weather reported over coffee regions in June and July, rather strange as we should be into the rainy season. The below average rainfall in June and July may result in a decrease in Vietnam coffee production of the next 2021/21 crop.
Fertilizer price is still high for now, almost double compared to the same period last year so it’s hard for farmer to apply the fertilizer. In addition, the dry weather in the begin of rain season will delay fertilizer application (farmers are waiting for the rains to apply 2nd fertilizer).
